Syukuro Manabe

Syukuro Manabe
Born	真鍋 淑郎 (Manabe Shukurō) 21 9, 1931
Birthplace	Shinritsu, Uma, Ehime Prefecture, Japan
Nationality	Japanese-American
Occupation	Meteorologist, climatologist, physicist
Employer	Princeton University, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (GFDL)
Known for	Pioneering computational climate modeling, physical modeling of Earth's climate
Education	University of Tokyo (BA, MA, DSc)
Awards	Nobel Prize in Physics (2021), Crafoord Prize in Geosciences (2018), Blue Planet Prize (1992)
Website	[https://scholar.princeton.edu/manabe Official site]

Syukuro "Suki" Manabe (真鍋 淑郎, Manabe Shukurō; born 21 September 1931) is a Japanese-American meteorologist, climatologist, and physicist whose work fundamentally transformed the scientific understanding of Earth's climate system. Born in a rural village in Ehime Prefecture, Japan, Manabe moved to the United States in the late 1950s and spent much of his career at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and at Princeton University, where he holds the title of senior meteorologist. In 1966, Manabe developed what is considered the first modern computational model of the global climate, demonstrating through numerical simulation how increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere lead to rising surface temperatures. For this foundational contribution to the physical modeling of Earth's climate, quantifying its variability, and enabling reliable predictions of climate change, Manabe was awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics, shared jointly with Klaus Hasselmann and Giorgio Parisi. His decades of research provided some of the earliest and most consequential scientific evidence that human activity was altering the global climate, forecasts that have been confirmed by observed data in the subsequent half-century.

Early Life

Syukuro Manabe was born on 21 September 1931 in the village of Shinritsu in Uma (present-day Shikokuchūō), located in Ehime Prefecture on the island of Shikoku, Japan. He grew up in a rural setting in one of Japan's less urbanized regions. Manabe's early life coincided with a period of significant upheaval in Japan, spanning the years of World War II and the country's subsequent reconstruction. Despite the challenges of the era, he developed an early interest in the natural sciences.

In interviews later in life, Manabe spoke of his enduring curiosity about the natural world and the forces that govern weather and climate. He has stated that his lifelong approach to science has been guided by pursuing topics that genuinely interested him, advising young researchers: "I really recommend that young people do things that they like." This philosophy of following intellectual curiosity rather than pursuing externally defined goals would characterize his long and productive career in climate science.

Manabe's upbringing in Japan, a country frequently subject to typhoons, monsoons, and other significant weather phenomena, may have contributed to his early awareness of the power and complexity of atmospheric processes. He pursued his higher education at the University of Tokyo, one of Japan's foremost research institutions, where he would begin to develop the scientific foundations that later enabled his groundbreaking work in climate modeling.

Education

Manabe received all of his formal education at the University of Tokyo. He earned a Bachelor of Arts degree, followed by a Master of Arts degree, and ultimately a Doctor of Science (DSc) degree from the same institution. His doctoral studies focused on atmospheric science and meteorology, providing him with a rigorous grounding in the physics of the atmosphere. During his time at the University of Tokyo, Manabe was trained in the theoretical and mathematical frameworks that would prove essential to his later development of computational climate models.

After completing his doctorate, Manabe was recruited to join a research group in the United States, a move that would define the trajectory of his career. The transition from post-war Japanese academia to the emerging field of computational meteorology in America represented a significant turning point, placing Manabe at the intersection of rapidly advancing computing technology and atmospheric science.

Career

Early Work at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Manabe joined the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), then part of the United States Weather Bureau (later incorporated into the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), in the late 1950s. GFDL, located in Princeton, New Jersey, became one of the world's leading centers for the development of numerical models of the atmosphere and ocean. It was in this institutional setting, with access to some of the most powerful computers then available, that Manabe began the work that would transform climate science.

At GFDL, Manabe was at the forefront of efforts to use numerical computation to simulate atmospheric processes. The approach was novel: rather than relying solely on observational data and statistical extrapolation, Manabe and his colleagues sought to build mathematical representations of the physical processes governing the atmosphere—radiation, convection, moisture transport, and heat exchange—and then use computers to solve the resulting equations and project the behavior of the climate system over time.

The 1966 Climate Model

In November 1966, Manabe, working with the meteorologist Richard Wetherald, published a landmark study that is now recognized as the first modern climate model. The paper developed a one-dimensional radiative-convective model of the atmosphere that could simulate the vertical temperature profile of the atmosphere and calculate how that profile would change in response to variations in the concentration of atmospheric gases, including carbon dioxide.

The model produced a result of profound consequence: it demonstrated that a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide would lead to an increase in surface temperature of approximately 2 degrees Celsius. This quantitative prediction, derived from fundamental physical principles and computed numerically, provided one of the earliest and most rigorous scientific demonstrations that human emissions of greenhouse gases could alter the global climate.

The significance of this work was not immediately appreciated in its full scope by the broader public or policymakers. However, within the scientific community, it represented a paradigm shift. Prior to Manabe's model, discussions of the possible climatic effects of carbon dioxide were largely qualitative and speculative. Manabe's work placed the question on a firm quantitative and physical footing, translating the abstract possibility of greenhouse warming into a concrete, testable prediction.

Development of General Circulation Models

Building on the one-dimensional model, Manabe and his colleagues at GFDL proceeded to develop increasingly sophisticated three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere and, eventually, coupled atmosphere-ocean models. These models represented the climate system in three spatial dimensions, dividing the atmosphere and ocean into grid cells and computing the evolution of temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, and ocean currents over time.

Manabe's coupled atmosphere-ocean models were among the first to simulate the interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean, capturing phenomena such as the redistribution of heat by ocean currents and the role of the ocean as a reservoir of carbon dioxide and thermal energy. These models were critical for understanding how the climate system responds to external forcing on timescales ranging from decades to centuries.

The models developed by Manabe and his team at GFDL became foundational to the field of climate science and were used by researchers worldwide. They also served as the conceptual and technical basis for the much more complex Earth system models employed by modern climate science. NOAA has recognized these models as one of the major scientific breakthroughs in the agency's history.

Key Predictions and Their Verification

Manabe's early models made a number of specific predictions about how the climate would change in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Among the most notable were:

• A rise in global average surface temperature
• Greater warming at high latitudes (polar amplification), with the Arctic warming faster than the global average
• Warming of the lower atmosphere (troposphere) accompanied by cooling of the upper atmosphere (stratosphere)
• Changes in precipitation patterns, with some regions becoming wetter and others drier

Research published in 2025 has confirmed that these early forecasts have been borne out by observational evidence accumulated over the subsequent half-century. Rising global temperatures, the rapid warming of the Arctic, and stratospheric cooling have all been documented, consistent with the predictions generated by Manabe's models decades earlier. The accuracy of these forecasts has been cited as evidence of the fundamental soundness of the physical understanding that underpins modern climate science.

As one account summarized, the evidence for the accuracy of early climate models "is all around you," pointing to the rising global temperatures, the fast-warming Arctic, and other changes that Manabe and his contemporaries predicted half a century ago.

Work at Princeton University

Throughout much of his career, Manabe maintained close ties with Princeton University, which has housed the GFDL since 1968. He held positions at both GFDL and the university, and eventually became a senior meteorologist at Princeton. At Princeton, Manabe continued his research into the physics of climate, mentored generations of younger scientists, and contributed to the university's status as one of the leading centers for climate research in the world.

Manabe briefly left the United States in the 1990s to work at the Frontier Research System for Global Change in Japan but returned to Princeton, where he continued his research and remained active in the scientific community well into his 90s.

Princeton University has been central to Manabe's professional identity for decades. In 2005, GFDL hosted a symposium in honor of Manabe's contributions to climate science, reflecting the esteem in which he was held by his colleagues and by the broader atmospheric science community.

The Princeton-GFDL climate research program, to which Manabe's work was foundational, continued to operate as a major hub for climate modeling research. In 2025, the program faced funding cuts from the federal government, with the Trump administration reducing research funding to the NOAA-Princeton collaboration, citing concerns about what it characterized as research that created "climate anxiety." The cuts affected the NOAA program at Princeton that Manabe's work helped establish.

Scientific Approach and Philosophy

Manabe has been noted for his approach to science, which combines mathematical rigor with a focus on identifying the essential physical processes at work in the climate system. Rather than attempting to capture every detail of the climate in his models, Manabe sought to isolate the most important mechanisms and study them in simplified settings, gradually adding complexity as understanding deepened. This "hierarchy of models" approach became a standard methodology in climate science.

In a 2022 interview with the Nobel Foundation, Manabe discussed his scientific philosophy, emphasizing the importance of curiosity-driven research and the value of pursuing problems that one finds genuinely interesting and enjoyable. He noted: "I really recommend that young people do things that they like." He also reflected on his long career and the satisfaction of seeing predictions made decades ago confirmed by observational data.

In his Nobel Prize lecture, delivered on 8 December 2021 and titled "Physical modelling of Earth's climate," Manabe described the evolution of climate models from simple one-dimensional radiative-convective models to complex three-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean models, tracing the intellectual arc of his career and the field he helped create.

Personal Life

Manabe has lived in the United States for the majority of his adult life. After moving from Japan to the United States in the late 1950s, he settled in the Princeton, New Jersey area, where he has remained for decades. He became a naturalized citizen of the United States, holding dual Japanese and American nationality for much of his life, though he later became solely an American citizen.

Known to colleagues and friends by the nickname "Suki," Manabe has been described by those who have worked with him as a scientist of deep focus and genuine enthusiasm for his research. When informed of his Nobel Prize in 2021, he reportedly described his decades of research as "great fun."

At the time of receiving the Nobel Prize in 2021, Manabe was 90 years old, making him one of the oldest recipients of the prize. He remained affiliated with Princeton University as a senior meteorologist.

Recognition

Nobel Prize in Physics (2021)

On 5 October 2021, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences announced that Syukuro Manabe had been awarded one half of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics, shared with Klaus Hasselmann, "for the physical modelling of Earth's climate, quantifying variability and reliably predicting global warming." The other half of the prize was awarded to Giorgio Parisi "for the discovery of the interplay of disorder and fluctuations in physical systems from atomic to planetary scales."

The Nobel Committee recognized Manabe's work as foundational to the modern understanding of the climate system, noting that his models had demonstrated how increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere lead to increased temperatures at the surface of the Earth. The award was notable for recognizing climate science within the context of physics, reflecting the fundamentally physical nature of Manabe's approach to the problem.

Manabe delivered his Nobel Prize lecture, titled "Physical modelling of Earth's climate," on 8 December 2021 in Stockholm. He was introduced by Professor Thors Hans Hansson.

Crafoord Prize (2018)

In 2018, Manabe was awarded the Crafoord Prize in Geosciences by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. The Crafoord Prize is awarded in scientific disciplines not covered by the Nobel Prizes and is one of the most prestigious awards in the earth sciences.

Other Honors

Manabe has received numerous other awards and honors throughout his career, reflecting the importance and influence of his contributions to climate science. Among these is the Blue Planet Prize, awarded in 1992 by the Asahi Glass Foundation for outstanding contributions to the resolution of global environmental problems. He has also been recognized by major professional organizations, including the American Meteorological Society and the European Geosciences Union, which awards the Milutin Milanković Medal for outstanding contributions to climate research.

A symposium was held in his honor at GFDL, recognizing his decades of service and his foundational role in the development of climate modeling.

Legacy

Syukuro Manabe's contributions to climate science have had a lasting and measurable impact on both the scientific understanding of the climate system and on the broader discourse around climate change. His 1966 model, developed with Richard Wetherald, is recognized as the starting point of modern computational climate modeling. The approach he pioneered—using numerical simulations based on physical principles to project the behavior of the climate system—has become the standard methodology in climate research and forms the basis of the climate projections used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and governments worldwide.

The predictions generated by Manabe's early models have been confirmed by decades of observational data. Rising global temperatures, accelerated Arctic warming, stratospheric cooling, and altered precipitation patterns have all unfolded as his models forecast, providing robust evidence for the physical reality of anthropogenic climate change. As a 2025 analysis noted, five key forecasts made by early climate models have been validated by observable evidence.

An account published in 2025 by The Times described Manabe as "the climate scientist who proved [skeptics] wrong — in the 1960s," noting that his work provided the quantitative scientific evidence for greenhouse gas-driven warming long before the issue became a subject of public and political debate.

At the institutional level, Manabe's work helped establish GFDL and Princeton University as leading centers for climate research. The models and methodologies developed at GFDL under his leadership have been built upon and refined by successive generations of scientists, and the laboratory remains one of the world's foremost climate modeling centers. The American Physical Society, in a 2025 retrospective, identified Manabe's November 1966 paper as the creation of "the first modern climate model," a designation that underscores the foundational nature of his contribution to the field.

Manabe's career also illustrates the importance of sustained, curiosity-driven basic research. His work on climate modeling began decades before climate change became a matter of widespread public concern, and the value of his early models was not fully appreciated until the predictions they generated were confirmed by subsequent observations. His story has been cited as an example of the long-term benefits of investing in fundamental scientific research, even when the practical applications are not immediately apparent.

As of the mid-2020s, at the age of 93, Manabe remained affiliated with Princeton University, and his work continued to be cited as the intellectual foundation of modern climate science.